California, Nevada, and Arizona are being asked to make difficult choices about a water supply millions of people rely on. The Colorado River’s reservoirs are at record-low levels, and years of drought have left less water to share. After the seven western states that depend on the river couldn’t agree on a basin-wide plan, the U.S. Department of the Interior finalized new rules for managing the supply.
Beginning in 2027, the federal plan calls for reducing water deliveries to the three Lower Basin states by 1.25 million acre-feet per year for two years. Officials also warned that deeper cuts could be considered over the next decade. (ABC News)
The question is… can communities keep growing as Colorado River water supplies dissipate.
Under a proposed agreement among the 3 affected states, Arizona would reduce deliveries by 760,000 acre-feet, California by 440,000, and Nevada by 50,000. The federal government is also encouraging the states to conserve and store another 700,000 acre-feet over the two-year period. The proposed state shares are part of a voluntary agreement, while the federal order establishes the overall Lower Basin reduction.
The pressure extends beyond delivery totals. Federal guidelines aim to keep Lake Powell at or above 3,510 feet to protect Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to generate hydropower. The federal government is also asking Upper Basin states to help send water downstream, even though it didn’t order them to make the same kind of delivery reductions. (U.S. Department of the Interior)
That makes the Colorado River challenge a regional planning issue with several competing needs: reliable water, hydropower, growing communities, and healthy ecosystems. The cuts won’t affect every community in California the same way, but the uncertainty makes it important to understand where local supplies come from and how vulnerable they may be to changing conditions.
For California communities, these figures are a warning to plan for uncertainty. The effects will vary from one water provider to another, depending on supply sources, infrastructure, conservation efforts, and regional arrangements.
What this means for boundaries and service capacity
Although LAFCOs don’t allocate water rights or approve subdivision maps, their reviews of agency services and Spheres of Influence can help communities examine whether agencies have the capacity to serve existing customers and anticipated growth.
When water availability is uncertain, plans for new development or expanded service areas should be considered alongside realistic information about supply and infrastructure. If future demand outpaces a system’s capacity, agencies may face difficult choices about upgrades, costs, and service priorities.
If your agency is preparing a Municipal Service Review, revisit the water supply and growth assumptions behind the analysis. Three questions can help focus that review:
How reliable is the supply? Look beyond a list of water wholesalers or contracts. Examine where water physically comes from, how imported supplies could be affected, and what local groundwater conditions mean for long-term reliability.
What alternatives are worth evaluating? Conservation is one part of the response. Depending on local conditions, agencies may also consider stormwater capture, recycled water, and other infrastructure investments.
Do long-term plans account for uncertainty? The federal order covers two years, but the Department of the Interior says it could order additional cuts over the next 10 years. Growth plans should make clear what assumptions they rely on and how agencies may respond if conditions change.
A realistic assessment with the PCA Team
Assessing service capacity while water conditions are changing takes careful research and a clear understanding of local agencies and their resources. The PCA Team works with California LAFCOs and public agencies on Municipal Service Reviews and regional planning, helping them examine current services, infrastructure needs, and factors that may affect future growth.
If your agency is preparing a service or growth review, contact the PCA Team to discuss how an independent, research-based analysis can help ground planning in current water conditions.